Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to increase 18.8 percent in 2011 to $35.1 billion, according to SEMI's consensus forecast. The forecast predicts that the market for both test and assembly equipment will contract in 2011, with semiconductor test equipment forecasted to decline by 5.5 percent to $3.92 billion and assembly and packaging forecasted to decline by 18 percent to $3.18 billion, SEMI said.
SEMI's mid-year consensus forecast is separate from the organization's world fab forecast, revised last month, which calls for spending on new and used fab equipment to reach just short of $44 billion in 2011.
According to SEMI analyst Dan Tracy, the consensus forecast updated Monday is based on input from the organization's data program participants and "can be looked at as a measure of sentiment amongst the participants." The forecast updated last month is based on analysis of company capital spending plans and a look at fab by fab spending, Tracy said. The fab by fab analysis currently projects an increase of around 27 percent in total fab equipment spending for 2011, Tracy said.
"The two forecasts are based on different methodologies and the consensus/sentiment based one tends to conservative," Tracy said via email.
According to the consensus forecast, 2011 is expected to be the second-highest semiconductor equipment spending year on record, second only to the $48 billion spend on equipment in 2000.
In 2012, the equipment market is expected to experience a slight decrease of about 1.2 percent, with wafer processing equipment spending declining 2 percent, according to SEMI's consensus forecast. Low single-digit growth in both the test and assembly equipment markets is expected in 2012, SEMI said.
SEMI, Fab, Tool, Forecast Consensus forecast sees 12% tool sales growth
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